After missing two seasons, the NBA is back with 82 games scheduled. Excitement is in the air as sports fans are ready to bet on their favorite teams. Hence, you need a proven and profitable betting scenario for long-term success with your NBA gambling strategy.
Able to turn newbies into pros, some of the systems below are no-brainers and easy to follow (tried and true from punters past). With no team injuries or matchup news to worry about, you are not jeopardizing your bankroll with heavy losses, and you do not need a mathematics degree (whew!).
Below are a few of the top NBA betting handle tactics.
How Relevant Is Having A Strategy For NBA Betting?
While finding a new wagering strategy is a personal choice, you may wonder what I should look for when betting in the NBA. Or you might question how does live betting works in NBA.
To help beat the NBA gambling market, think about your bankroll, wagering expertise, and goals. No strategy is a guarantee for success, i.e., you will not win all the time. Hence, it is best to expand your arsenal of NBA handicapping tips. While every bettor wants to win serious cash, to stay profitable, improve your wagering knowledge by becoming a better handicapper and gamble responsibly.
If you are a rookie bettor, stick to the most basic gambling strategies. Use systems like live bets, fading the public, shaded lines to your advantage. That allows you to lay the groundwork, and you can eventually migrate to advanced NBA gambling. Let’s start with the easy strategies first.
Essential NBA Betting Strategies
Big Losses Strategy
NBA underdog bets are prevalent with teams that suffered a heavy loss. Anxious to prove themselves, they are motivated to win the next game. The Big Losses Strategy is well-liked as there are no statistics or IRs to review. Research teams with losses by 15 points or more. Since 2006 they have been 64% or 126-71-3 against the spread.
With this NBA wagering system, pick home favorites favored by 10 points or more in the spread. See if they beat their last opponent by 15 points or higher. Then make a wager on the underdog. Home favorites off a 15 point win cover the spread 42.5%, while the underdog has a win rate of 57.5%.
Bounce Back System
Sometimes teams finishing a poor offensive game will have an impressive win at their next home game. One study looked at 250 games. Teams that played at home next were over their estimated total points 62% of the time.
When looking up teams, they should have +.500 with under 40% from the field in an earlier game. Bet the total points over if their next game is at home.
Non-Conference Overs (High Total) System
If you are wondering what is the most profitable betting strategy, among the most reputable, is the High Total System. Created by Allen Moody, this NBA over under strategy suggests that sportsbooks will underestimate non-conference game totals. Moody bet the over where match-ups totaled 220-points. His success rate over four seasons was 63.5% in 2004.
Given an uptick in 3-pointers over the past several years, this high total system holds. In 2016-17, for example, scores averaged 105.6. In 2018-19, scores averaged 111.2. The benefit here is that while bookmakers were clued in on this trend, there is value on over/under games.
Rested Teams vs. No Resting Strategy
Teams play better when they have time to rest. To use this type of wagering system, look for teams that are in back-to-back games. You will also see this more after the first quarter when players have injuries and are wearing down.
The D’Alembert System
Like the Martingale System below, you pick an amount to bet and increase it the same amount each time you win and decrease it the same amount each time you win. Take a $20 bet on an upcoming game. If you lose, only bet $20 on the next game. If you lose again, bet $40 on the next event. When you win, go back to your original $20 bet.
While not necessarily a bank breaker with the high-rollers, this method is popular if you have a smaller amount to bet with. It is also ideal if you want to mitigate your risks.
The Martingale System
It is a basic wager strategy used in casinos. Simply double your bet each time you lose but return to your original wager if you win. Long-term benefits include increasing your bankroll, but the downside is that if you are on a losing streak, you can quickly burn through your funds.
Use this method if you understand statistical trends. You should also study scoring averages, injuries, match-ups, and pace of play to help guess the final scores.
The Tunnel Betting System
Bookmakers have different total points lines but with the same odds. A bookmaker might have the Celtics and Rockets at 217, while another has 214; both are -9 point favorites. Bet the over, which is 214 at one, and then the under 217 with the other. If the score totals 215 or 216, you win both bets. If it does not, you only win one bet, a small net loss.
To cash in, you need wins from two bets 10% of the time. While the tunnel is the likely outcome, this strategy has potential, especially if you find bookmakers with total point lines 2 points apart.
The 3 in 4 Games System
Another NBA sports betting strategy and one of the easiest is the 3 in 4. The theory is that teams that play three games in only four nights will go over the total points margin 58.8% of the time. Hence, players have less defensive energy because they’re tired. Simply bet on the total points over if they are back-to-back-to-back (B2B2B).
Pro NBA Betting Strategies
Fade the Public
Seasoned gamblers or punters do not play favorites, but the general public does as they bet with their hearts or gut. Consider going against the grain, and instead of playing the favorite, bet on the underdog. It may not guarantee a win, but it is a good strategy. Hence, sportsbooks stay in business for a reason. See it as aligning yourself with the house, which always wins in the end.
Identify Shaded Lines (And a Note About Live Betting)
The basic premise is that bookmakers might accept heavy wagers for favorites and move betting lines in that direction. Hence, look for shaded NBA lines in big rivalry matchups. Find the shaded line which represents a value play and wager against it. Like fading the public, bookmakers use this technique to keep handles balanced. It differs from a live betting basketball strategy.
With live bets, the lines are constantly updated. Use live bets to see the teams before the matchup starts and bet based on injuries, energy level, and other factors.
Which One Is More Suitable
Ideally, identifying shaded lines is a win-win as fans tend to bet on the favorite. The sportsbook is giving you a free advantage, so use it and bank a few extra dollars!
Once you are ready to bet on the NBA games, explore out the sign-up offers before you start wagering. A few trusted gambling sites for the NBA include BetUS, MyBookie, SportsBetting, and Bovada. BetUS offers 125% up to $2,500 while SportsBetting has a promotion for 50% up to $1,000. Nothing but net!
All Bets are On!
Sports gambling attracts lots of action. Hence, if you wonder how you make money on NBA betting, apply the NBA handicapping systems above to improve your punting. But keep in mind, even all-star bettors can find themselves struggling with money management. If you ever asked how do I get better at NBA betting, for long-term success, use the NBA trends above and value betting (to improve your odds) instead of chasing losses and favorites.
Tightly defined rules give you an advantage over seasoned bettors, and you can avoid spending hours on injury reports, energy levels, and team schedules. Solid plans like fading the public and betting against shaded lines can increase your bankroll responsibly. But if you do decide to chase the occasional loss, ensure it is profitable.
What’s all that bracket? Kassandra Hall writes for Safest Betting Sites. She is a sports writer who is avid about golf, biking, basketball, and football. Interested in keeping her audiences engaged with a humorous take, she tackles a wide variety of sports and loves NCAA tournaments.
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