Kinew won round one of the carbon tax battle. Now he must win the war

The consumer carbon tax is gone, but Ottawa’s industrial carbon tax is still hitting Manitobans hard. Will Kinew take the next step?

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Premier Wab Kinew was right to oppose the federal consumer carbon tax—a move that delivered real relief to Manitobans. But the job isn’t done.

He now needs to take the next step and call for an end to the federal industrial carbon tax, which is set to become even more expensive under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Carney has made it clear he intends not only to keep the industrial carbon tax but to “improve and tighten” it. That means higher costs for Manitoba families and businesses.

Before the federal pause, Kinew said Manitoba didn’t “need that carbon tax here.” He urged Ottawa to “give Manitobans a break.” And that break finally came—at least in part.

As of April 1, the federal government set the consumer carbon tax to zero across Canada, including in Manitoba. Manitoba drivers immediately began saving: gas prices dropped by 17 cents per litre, diesel by 21 cents and natural gas by 15 cents per cubic metre.

But while drivers saw relief at the pumps, the hidden costs of Ottawa’s industrial carbon tax remain firmly in place.

The federal government’s industrial carbon tax still applies. This tax targets large-scale emitters like manufacturers, processors and utilities, who pay a set amount per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions. While it doesn’t appear directly on consumers’ bills, it drives up prices on nearly everything.

When businesses are forced to pay a carbon tax, they pass those costs along. That means higher prices to heat homes, buy groceries and, in rural areas, grow food. Fertilizer becomes more expensive. So does the fuel used to produce and process what we eat.

Some of Manitoba’s largest employers are on the hook for the industrial carbon tax. That includes a fertilizer plant in Brandon, a potato processing facility in Portage la Prairie and natural gas pipelines that span the province.

A recent Leger poll found that 68 per cent of Manitobans and Saskatchewanians believe businesses pass most or some of the industrial carbon tax on to consumers. Only nine per cent believe companies absorb the cost themselves.

The consequences go beyond prices—they affect jobs. When business owners decide where to invest, the carbon tax is a major factor. If the tax rises too high, companies may choose to shift production south, and Manitobans will pay the price in lost jobs.

The Brandon fertilizer plant employs nearly 300 people. More than 300 work at the Portage potato plant. The natural gas pipeline sector also supports many jobs across the province. If any of these reduce operations or pull out entirely, it won’t just hurt direct employees—it will ripple through industries that depend on them.

Before Parliament resumes and Carney begins tightening the industrial carbon tax, Kinew needs to speak up for Manitobans.

Right now, the industrial carbon tax costs businesses $95 per tonne of emissions. That’s already steep. But it’s scheduled to rise to $170 per tonne by 2030. Carney has indicated he plans to extend the framework to 2035, pushing the price to $245 per tonne—more than double today’s rate.

Saskatchewan recently scrapped its own industrial carbon tax, making it the first carbon tax–free province in the country. The move was met with support from across the province.

“Today’s announcement is a significant step forward for rural Saskatchewan,” said Bill Huber, president of the Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities.

“This decisive action will provide much-needed relief to Saskatchewan’s heavy civil construction industry,” added Shantel Lipp, president of the Saskatchewan Heavy Construction Association.

Kinew knew the consumer carbon tax was making life less affordable. The industrial carbon tax is doing the same.

If Kinew is serious about standing up for Manitobans, he should now demand an end to the industrial carbon tax—before the costs climb even higher and the burden grows heavier on Manitoba families and businesses.

Gage Haubrich is the Prairie director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.