Kashmir conflict threatens global security and peace

India and Pakistan’s enduring conflict over Kashmir threatens regional security and global stability. The stakes have never been higher

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Since gaining independence from Britain in August 1947, India and Pakistan have fought four major wars and dozens of skirmishes. The source of their enduring hostility lies in Partition, the violent process that created two new countries: India, with a Hindu majority, and Pakistan, with a Muslim majority.

Partition triggered one of the largest and most traumatic mass migrations in history, with millions uprooted amid communal violence. The wounds from those days still fester, fuelling mutual mistrust and suspicion.

At the heart of this rivalry lies Kashmir, a mountainous region wedged between India, Pakistan and China. Both India and Pakistan claim it in full, but the territory remains divided: India controls about two-thirds, including the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh; Pakistan administers the north and west, Azad Kashmir, Gilgit and Baltistan; China has occupied Aksai Chin since the 1960s. Kashmir’s 17 million people are overwhelmingly Muslim.

For Pakistan, the region’s religious makeup is a natural extension of its own identity. India, on the other hand, stresses its multi-religious character and views Kashmir as an inseparable part of its secular nation.

Kashmir’s significance is more than symbolic. Its location is strategic, and its rivers are lifelines for both countries. The Indus River, which begins in Tibet and flows through Indian-controlled Kashmir into Pakistan, is crucial for Pakistani agriculture, over 90 per cent of which depends on its waters. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has been a rare example of India-Pakistan cooperation, governing how water is shared. Any disruption to this agreement has immediate and profound consequences for food security and regional stability.

The story of Kashmir is inextricably linked to the wars the two countries have fought. The First Kashmir War (1947-48) established the line of control that still divides the territory. In 1965, the Second Kashmir War erupted, again over disputed land. The 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, rooted in East Pakistan’s (now Bangladesh) struggle for independence, escalated when India intervened, ultimately leading to Pakistan’s defeat and the creation of Bangladesh. The 1999 Kargil conflict, fought at high altitude, brought further bloodshed, with hundreds killed on both sides.

Despite these repeated clashes, neither side has managed to achieve a decisive victory or a lasting peace. Bilateral talks, international mediation and multiple ceasefire agreements have all been attempted, but deep mistrust and nationalist fervour have repeatedly derailed progress. Kashmir remains central to the national identity and political narrative of both countries, making any retreat or compromise politically costly.

In recent years, the risks have grown even more acute. Both India and Pakistan possess about 170 nuclear warheads each, placing the region among the world’s most dangerous flashpoints. India’s population, now around 1.44 billion, dwarfs Pakistan’s 247 million, and its economic and military might are considerably greater, ranked fourth globally in military power and fifth in economic strength, compared to Pakistan’s 12th. But this imbalance does not lessen the risk of escalation; on the contrary, it may increase the temptation to test boundaries.

The latest crisis erupted in April, when gunmen massacred 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali national in Kashmir’s Baisaram Valley. India blamed a Pakistan-based extremist group, an accusation Islamabad denied. In retaliation, India bombed nine targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. Fierce clashes erupted, but after four days, a ceasefire was reached through intense U.S. diplomatic pressure, a reminder that international intervention is often necessary to restore calm.

In the aftermath, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a move with immediate and tangible consequences for millions of Pakistanis who depend on the Indus for drinking water and farming. This retaliatory step underscored how even long-standing agreements can fall victim to the cycle of violence and political brinkmanship.

While these events may seem distant, their implications are global. Any escalation between India and Pakistan would reverberate far beyond South Asia, threatening world security. For Canadians, the issue hits close to home: Canada is home to large and vibrant South Asian communities, many with direct ties to the region, and broader instability there can have economic, political and personal impacts here.

Ultimately, finding a solution to the India-Pakistan conflict, especially over Kashmir, is an immense challenge, burdened by history, nationalism and vital resources. Yet, as nuclear powers, both nations have a responsibility to avoid miscalculation and work toward a durable peace. The path forward will be difficult, but the alternative is unthinkable—not just for India and Pakistan, but for the world.

Isidoros Karderinis was born in Athens, Greece. He is a journalist, foreign press correspondent, economist, novelist and poet. He is accredited by the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a foreign press correspondent and has built a distinguished career in journalism and literature.